Anand Talks

A great business at a demanding price is still a valuation question. We examine Apple's moat, services mix, and cash generation against what 37x actually requires — and what Berkshire's exit does and doesn't tell you.

An oil shock transmits to India through the current account, the rupee, and the CPI print. We map the chain from a shipping chokepoint to your portfolio, and discuss whether the petrodollar framing holds up.

Anand's years on the Madras Stock Exchange floor, and what they taught him about how ordinary people destroy wealth. A conversation about lifestyle inflation, EMIs, and the unglamorous arithmetic of compounding.

Wipro near cash value, Natco under 10x earnings. Are these classic Graham bargains or value traps? We use both names to work through the difference between statistically cheap and genuinely undervalued.

Marks built Oaktree on a simple asymmetry — avoid permanent loss and the returns take care of themselves. We go through his framework on risk, cycles, and second-level thinking, and how to apply it in Indian markets.

Private credit has grown from a niche into a multi-trillion-dollar asset class with limited mark-to-market discipline. Marks' warning, the rate shock behind it, and why the historical analogy is instructive rather than predictive.

A handful of AI names now carry an outsized share of US index returns and capex. We trace the linkages from a single stock to jobs, credit, and inflation — and separate what's genuinely systemic from what's just concentration risk.

Buffett's record cash position is read by many as a crash call. We look at what the cash actually signals about valuations, why Berkshire's structure makes cash cheaper to hold than it is for you, and what retail investors should and shouldn't copy.

Headline GDP growth looks strong. Downward revisions, wage stagnation, and the gap between budget assumptions and ground reality tell a more complicated story. A first-principles look at reading India's macro data honestly.

India survived 1991 with a balance-of-payments crisis and came out reforming. Today's problem is different: stagnant wages, AI-driven hiring freezes, and a generation entering a narrower job market. Anand Srinivasan on why the comparison is uncomfortable but useful.

The FT's Martin Wolf argues the US has changed its role in the world order, not just its policies. We unpack what that means for alliances, trade, the dollar's reserve status, and how an Indian investor should think about a less predictable America.

The Bank of Japan unwinding its Treasury holdings is one of the least discussed but most consequential trades in global markets. Anand and Vinod break down how the yen carry trade works, what forced unwinding looks like, and why a shift in Tokyo shows up in Indian markets within days.

Anand Talks is back. In this episode, Anand and Vinod break down the growing fault line between the US Federal Reserve and the US Treasury, and why Stanley Druckenmiller's latest warning matters for every investor, including those in India. What we cover: Druckenmiller's argument that US rates are still too low, and why that puts him at odds with the Fed's own reading of policy The $40 trillion US debt pile: how interest costs are crowding out everything else in the federal budget Why the bond market, not the stock market, is where this plays out first The Fed–Treasury tension: who wants lower yields, who can't afford them, and what happens when the two collide Global macro spillovers: the dollar, gold, emerging-market flows, and what an Indian investor should actually do with this information

Law 48: Assume Formlessness By taking a shape, by having a visible plan, you open yourself to attack. Instead of taking a form for your enemy to grasp, keep yourself adaptable and on the move. Accept the fact that nothing is certain and no law is fixed. The best way to protect yourself is to be as fluid and formless as water; never bet on stability or lasting order. Everything changes.

Law 47: Do Not Go Past The Mark You Aimed For; In Victory Learn When To Stop The moment of victory is often the moment of greatest peril. In the heat of victory, arrogance and overconfidence can push you past the goal you had aimed for, and by going too far, you make more enemies than you defeat. Do not allow success to go to your head. There is no substitute for strategy and careful planning. Set a goal, and when you reach it, stop.

Law 46: Never Appear Too Perfect Appearing better than others is always dangerous, but most dangerous of all is to appear to have no faults or weaknesses. Envy creates silent enemies. It is smart to occasionally display defects, and admit to harmless vices, in order to deflect envy and appear more human and approachable. Only gods and the dead can seem perfect with impunity.

Law 45: Preach The Need For Change, But Never Reform Too Much At Once Everyone understands the need for change in the abstract, but on the day-to-day level people are creatures of habit. Too much innovation is traumatic, and will lead to revolt. If you are new to a position of power, or an outsider trying to build a power base, make a show of respecting the old way of doing things. If change is necessary, make it feel like a gentle improvement on the past.

Law 44: Disarm and Infuriate With The Mirror Effect The mirror reflects reality, but it is also the perfect tool for deception: when you mirror your enemies, doing exactly as they do, they cannot figure out your strategy. The Mirror Effect mocks and humiliates them, making them overreact. By holding up a mirror to their psyches, you seduce them with the illusion that you share their values; by holding up a mirror to their actions, you teach them a lesson. Few can resist the power of the Mirror Effect.

Law 43: Work On The Hearts And Minds Of Others Coercion creates a reaction that will eventually work against you. You must seduce others into wanting to move in your direction. A person you have seduced becomes your loyal pawn. And the way to seduce others is to operate on their individual psychologies and weaknesses. Soften up the resistant by working on their emotions, playing on what they hold dear and what they fear. Ignore the hearts and minds of others and they will grow to hate you.

Law 42: Strike The Shepherd And The Sheep Will Scatter Trouble can often be traced to a single strong individual — the stirrer, the arrogant underling, the poisoner of goodwill. If you allow such people room to operate, others will succumb to their influence. Do not wait for the troubles they cause to multiply, do not try to negotiate with them — they are irredeemable. Neutralize their influence by isolating or banishing them. Strike at the source of trouble and the sheep will scatter.

Law 41: Avoid Stepping Into A Great Man’s Shoes What happens first always appears better and more original than what comes after. If you succeed a great man or have a famous parent, you will have to accomplish double their achievements to outshine them. Do not get lost in their shadow, or stuck in a past not of your own making. Establish your own name and identity by changing course. Slay the overbearing father, disparage his legacy, and gain power by shining in your own way.

Law 40: Despise The Free Lunch What is offered for free is dangerous — it usually involves a trick or a hidden obligation. What has worth is worth paying for. By paying your own way you stay clear of gratitude, guilt and deceit. It is also often wise to pay the full price — there is no cutting corners with excellence. Be lavish with your money and keep it circulating, for generosity is a sign and a magnet for power.

Law 39: Stir Up Waters To Catch Fish Anger and emotion are strategically counterproductive. You must always stay calm and objective. But if you can make your enemies angry while staying calm yourself, you gain a decided advantage. Put your enemies off-balance: find the chink in their vanity through which you can rattle them and you hold the strings.

Law 38: Think As You Like But Behave Like Others If you make a show of going against the times, flaunting your unconventional ideas and unorthodox ways, people will think that you only want attention and that you look down upon them. They will find a way to punish you for making them feel inferior. It is far safer to blend in and nurture the common touch. Share your originality only with tolerant friends and those who are sure to appreciate your uniqueness.

Law 37: Create Compelling Spectacles Striking imagery and grand symbolic gestures create the aura of power — everyone responds to them. Stage spectacles for those around you, then, full of arresting visuals and radiant symbols that heighten your presence. Dazzled by appearances, no one will notice what you are really doing.

Law 36: Disdain Things You Cannot Have: Ignoring Them Is The Best Revenge By acknowledging a petty problem you give it existence and credibility. The more attention you pay an enemy, the stronger you make him; and a small mistake is often made worse and more visible when you try to fix it. It is sometimes best to leave things alone. If there is something you want but cannot have, show contempt for it. The less interest you reveal, the more superior you seem.

Law 35: Master The Art Of Timing Never seem to be in a hurry — hurrying betrays a lack of control over yourself and over time. Always seem patient, as if you know that everything will come to you eventually. Become a detective of the right moment; sniff and the spirit of the times, the trends that will carry you to power. Learn to stand back when the time is not yet ripe, and to strike fiercely when it has reached fruition.

Law 34: Be Royal In Your Own Fashion: Act Like A King To Be Treated Like One The way you carry yourself will often determine how you are treated: in the long run, appearing vulgar or common will make people disrespect you. For a king respects himself and inspires the same sentiment in others. By acting regally and confident of your powers, you make yourself seem destined to wear a crown.v

Law 33: Discover Each Man’s Thumbscrew Everyone has a weakness, a gap in the castle wall. That weakness is usually an insecurity, an uncontrollable emotion or need; it can also be a small secret pleasure. Either way, once found, it is a thumbscrew you can turn to your advantage.

Law 32: Play To People’s Fantasies The truth is often avoided because it is ugly and unpleasant. Never appeal to truth and reality unless you are prepared for the anger that comes from disenchantment. Life is so harsh and distressing that people who can manufacturer romance or conjure up fantasy are like oases in the desert: everyone flocks to them. There is great power in tapping into the fantasies of the masses.

Law 31: Control The Options: Get Others To Play With The Cards You Deal The best deceptions are the ones that seem to give the other person a choice: your victims feel they are in control, but are actually your puppets. Give people options that come out in your favour whichever one they choose. Force them to make choices between the lesser of two evils, both of which serve your purpose. Put them on the horns of a dilemma: they are gored whenever they turn.

Law 30: Make Your Accomplishments Seem Effortless Your actions must seem natural and executed with ease. All the toil and practice that go into them, and also all the clever tricks must be concealed. When you act, act effortlessly, as if you could do much more. Avoid the temptation of revealing how hard you work — it only raises questions. Teach no one your tricks or they will be used against you.

Law 29: Plan All The Way To The End The ending is everything. Plan all the way to it, taking into account all the possible consequences, obstacles and twists of fortune that might reverse your hard work and give the glory to others. By planning to the end you will not be overwhelmed by circumstances and you will know when to stop. Gently guide fortune and help determine the future by thinking far ahead.

Law 28: Enter Action With Boldness If you are unsure of a course of action, do not attempt it. Your doubts and hesitations will infect your execution. Timidity is dangerous: better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity. Everyone admires the bold; no one honours the timid.

Law 27: Play On People’s Need To Believe To Create A Cultlike Following People have an overwhelming desire to believe in something. Become the focal point of such desire by offering them a cause, a new faith to follow. Keep your words vague but full of promise; emphasize enthusiasm over rationality and clear thinking. Give your new disciples rituals to perform, ask them to make sacrifices on your behalf. In the absence of organized religion and grand causes, your new belief system will bring you untold power.

Law 26: Keep Your Hands Clean You must seem a paragon of civility and efficiency: your hands are never soiled by mistakes and nasty deeds. Maintain such a spotless appearance by using others as scapegoats and cat’s paws to disguise your involvement.

Law 25: Re-Create Yourself Do not accept the roles that society foists on you. Re-create yourself by forging a new identity, one that commands attention and never bores the audience. Be the master of your own image rather than letting others define it for you. Incorporate dramatic devices into your public gestures and actions — your power will be enhanced and your character will seem larger than life.

The perfect courtier thrives in a world where everything revolves around power and political dexterity. He has mastered the art of indirection; he flatters, yields to superiors, and asserts power over others in the most oblique and graceful manner. Learn and apply the laws of courtiership and there will be no limit to how far you can rise in the court.

Law 23: Concentrate Your Forces Conserve your forces and energies by keeping them concentrated at their strongest point. You gain more by finding a rich mine and mining it deeper, than by flitting from one shallow mine to another — intensity defeats extensity every time. When looking for sources of power to elevate you, find the one key patron, the fat cow who will give you milk for a long time to come.

Law 22: Use The Surrender Tactic: Transform Weakness Into Power When you are weaker, never fight for honour’s sake; choose surrender instead. Surrender gives you time to recover, time to torment and irritate your conqueror, time to wait for his power to wane. Do not give him the satisfaction of fighting and defeating you — surrender first. By turning the other cheek you infuriate and unsettle him. Make surrender a tool of power.

Law 21: Play A Sucker To Catch A Sucker — Seem Dumber Than Your Mark No one likes feeling stupider than the next person. The trick then is to make your victims feel smart — and not just smart, but smarter than you are. Once convinced of this, they will never suspect that you have ulterior motives. சட்டம் 21: ஒரு உறிஞ்சியைப் பிடிக்க ஒரு உறிஞ்சி விளையாடு - உங்கள் குறியை விட ஊமையாகத் தெரிகிறது அடுத்தவரை விட முட்டாள்தனமாக உணர்வதை யாரும் விரும்ப மாட்டார்கள். உங்கள் பாதிக்கப்பட்டவர்களை புத்திசாலியாக உணர வைப்பதே தந்திரம் - புத்திசாலிகள் மட்டுமல்ல, உங்களை விட புத்திசாலி. இதை ஒருமுறை நம்பிவிட்டால், உங்களிடம் மறைமுகமான நோக்கங்கள் இருப்பதாக அவர்கள் ஒருபோதும் சந்தேகிக்க மாட்டார்கள்.

Law 20: Do Not Commit To Anyone It is the fool who always rushes to take sides. Do not commit to any side or cause but yourself. By maintaining your independence, you become the master of others — playing people against one another, making them pursue you. சட்டம் 20: யாரிடமும் ஒப்புக்கொள்ள வேண்டாம் எப்பொழுதும் பக்கபலமாக விரைபவன் முட்டாள். உங்களைத் தவிர எந்தப் பக்கத்திற்கோ அல்லது காரணத்திற்கோ ஒப்புக்கொள்ளாதீர்கள். உங்கள் சுதந்திரத்தைப் பேணுவதன் மூலம், நீங்கள் மற்றவர்களின் எஜமானர் ஆவீர்கள் - ஒருவரையொருவர் எதிர்த்து மக்களை விளையாடி, அவர்கள் உங்களைப் பின்தொடரச் செய்கிறீர்கள்.

Law 19: Know Who You Are Dealing With — Do Not Offend The Wrong Person There are many different kinds of people in the world, and you can never assume that everyone will react to your strategies in the same way. Deceive or outmaneuver some people and they will spend the rest of their lives seeking revenge. They are wolves in lambs’ clothing. Choose your victims and opponents carefully, then — never offend or deceive the wrong person. சட்டம் 19: நீங்கள் யாருடன் பழகுகிறீர்கள் என்பதை அறிந்து கொள்ளுங்கள் - தவறான நபரை புண்படுத்தாதீர்கள் உலகில் பல்வேறு வகையான மக்கள் உள்ளனர், உங்கள் உத்திகளுக்கு அனைவரும் ஒரே மாதிரியாக செயல்படுவார்கள் என்று நீங்கள் ஒருபோதும் கருத முடியாது. சிலரை ஏமாற்றியோ அல்லது ஏமாற்றியோ, அவர்கள் தங்கள் வாழ்நாள் முழுவதையும் பழிவாங்குவதற்காகவே செலவிடுவார்கள். அவர்கள் ஆட்டுக்குட்டிகளின் உடையில் ஓநாய்கள். உங்கள் பாதிக்கப்பட்டவர்களையும் எதிரிகளையும் கவனமாகத் தேர்ந்தெடுங்கள் - தவறான நபரை ஒருபோதும் புண்படுத்தவோ அல்லது ஏமாற்றவோ வேண்டாம்.

Law 18: Do Not Build Fortresses To Protect Yourself — Isolation Is Dangerous The world is dangerous and enemies are everywhere — everyone has to protect themselves. A fortress seems the safest. But isolation exposes you to more dangers than it protects you from — it cuts you off from valuable information, it makes you conspicuous and an easy target. Better to circulate among people, find allies, mingle. You are shielded from your enemies by the crowd. சட்டம் 18: உங்களைப் பாதுகாத்துக் கொள்ள கோட்டைகளைக் கட்டாதீர்கள் - தனிமைப்படுத்தப்படுவது ஆபத்தானது உலகம் ஆபத்தானது மற்றும் எதிரிகள் எல்லா இடங்களிலும் உள்ளனர் - ஒவ்வொருவரும் தங்களைத் தாங்களே பாதுகாத்துக் கொள்ள வேண்டும். ஒரு கோட்டை பாதுகாப்பானதாகத் தெரிகிறது. ஆனால் தனிமைப்படுத்தப்படுவது உங்களைப் பாதுகாப்பதை விட அதிக ஆபத்துகளுக்கு உங்களை வெளிப்படுத்துகிறது - இது மதிப்புமிக்க தகவல்களிலிருந்து உங்களைத் துண்டித்து, அது உங்களைத் தெளிவாகவும் எளிதான இலக்காகவும் ஆக்குகிறது. மக்களிடையே சுற்றுவது, கூட்டாளிகளைக் கண்டறிவது, ஒன்றிணைவது நல்லது. உங்கள் எதிரிகளிடமிருந்து நீங்கள்…

Law 17: Keep Others In Suspended Terror: Cultivate An Air Of Unpredictability Humans are creatures of habit with an insatiable need to see familiarity in other people’s actions. Your predictability gives them a sense of control. Turn the tables: be deliberately unpredictable. Behaviour that seems to have no consistency or purpose will keep them off-balance, and they will wear themselves out trying to explain your moves. Taken to an extreme, this strategy can intimidate and terrorize. சட்டம் 17: மற்றவர்களை இடைநிறுத்தப்பட்ட பயங்கரவாதத்தில் வைத்திருங்கள்: கணிக்க முடியாத காற்றை வளர்ப்பது மனிதர்கள் பழக்கத்தின் உயிரினங்கள், மற்றவர்களின் செயல்களில் பரிச்சயத்தைக் காண வேண்டும். உங்கள் முன்கணிப்பு அவர்களுக்குக் கட்டுப்பாட்டு உணர்வைத் தருகிறது. அட்டவணையைத் திருப்புங்கள்: வேண்டுமென்றே கணிக்க முடியாததாக இருங்கள். எந்த நிலைத்தன்மையும் அல்லது நோக்கமும் இல்லாதது போல் தோன்றும் நடத்தை அவர்களை சமநிலையற்றதாக வைத்திருக்கும், மேலும் அவர்கள் உங்கள் நகர்வுகளை விளக்க முயற்சிப்பதில் சோர்வடைவார்கள். தீவிரமான நிலைக்கு எடுத்துச்…

Law 16: Use Absence To Increase Respect And Honour Too much circulation makes the price go down: the more you are seen and heard from, the more common you appear. If you are already established in a group, temporary withdrawal from it will make you more talked about, even more admired. You must learn when to leave. Create value through scarcity. சட்டம் 16: மரியாதை மற்றும் மரியாதையை அதிகரிக்க இல்லாததை பயன்படுத்தவும் அதிக புழக்கம் விலையைக் குறைக்கிறது: நீங்கள் எவ்வளவு அதிகமாகப் பார்க்கப்படுகிறீர்களோ, கேட்கிறீர்களோ, அவ்வளவு பொதுவானதாக நீங்கள் தோன்றும். நீங்கள் ஏற்கனவே ஒரு குழுவில் நிறுவப்பட்டிருந்தால், அதிலிருந்து தற்காலிகமாக விலகுவது உங்களைப் பற்றி அதிகம் பேசப்படும், மேலும் போற்றப்படும். எப்போது வெளியேற வேண்டும் என்பதை நீங்கள் கற்றுக் கொள்ள வேண்டும். பற்றாக்குறை மூலம் மதிப்பை உருவாக்குங்கள்.

Why are we likely to continue with an investment even if it would be rational to give it up? முதலீட்டை விட்டுவிடுவது பகுத்தறிவாக இருந்தாலும் நாம் ஏன் அதைத் தொடரலாம்?

Law 15: Crush Your Enemy Totally All great leaders since Moses have known that a feared enemy must be crushed completely. (Sometimes they have learned this the hard way.) If one ember is left alight, no matter how dimly it smolders, a fire will eventually break out. More is lost through stopping halfway than through total annihilation: the enemy will recover, and will seek revenge. Crush him, not only in body but in spirit. சட்டம் 15: உங்கள் எதிரியை முழுவதுமாக நசுக்கவும் மோசஸ் முதல் அனைத்து பெரிய தலைவர்களும் பயப்படும் எதிரியை முழுமையாக நசுக்க வேண்டும் என்பதை அறிந்திருக்கிறார்கள். (சில சமயங்களில் இதை அவர்கள் கடினமாகக் கற்றுக்கொண்டார்கள்.) ஒரு தீக்குச்சியை எரித்து விட்டால், அது எவ்வளவு மங்கலாகப் புகைத்தாலும், இறுதியில் நெருப்பு வெடிக்கும். மொத்த அழிவைக் காட்டிலும் பாதியில் நிறுத்துவதன் மூலம் இழந்தவை அதிகம்: எதிரி மீண்டு, பழிவாங்குவார். உடலில் மட்டுமல்ல, உள்ளத்திலும் அவரை நசுக்குங்கள்.

Law 14: Pose As A Friend, Work As A Spy Knowing about your rival is critical. Use spies to gather valuable information that will keep you a step ahead. Better still: play the spy yourself. In polite social encounters, learn to probe. Ask indirect questions to get people to reveal their weaknesses and intentions. There is no occasion that is not an opportunity for artful spying. சட்டம் 14: ஒரு நண்பராக போஸ், ஒரு உளவாளியாக வேலை உங்கள் போட்டியாளரைப் பற்றி அறிந்து கொள்வது மிகவும் முக்கியமானது. உங்களை ஒரு படி மேலே வைத்திருக்கும் மதிப்புமிக்க தகவல்களை சேகரிக்க உளவாளிகளைப் பயன்படுத்தவும். இன்னும் சிறப்பாக: உளவாளியை நீங்களே விளையாடுங்கள். கண்ணியமான சமூக சந்திப்புகளில், ஆய்வு செய்ய கற்றுக்கொள்ளுங்கள். மக்கள் தங்கள் பலவீனங்களையும் நோக்கங்களையும் வெளிப்படுத்த மறைமுகக் கேள்விகளைக் கேளுங்கள். கலைநயமிக்க உளவு பார்ப்பதற்கு வாய்ப்பில்லாத சந்தர்ப்பம் இல்லை.

Law 13: When Asking For Help, Appeal To People’s Self-Interest, Never To Their Mercy Or Gratitude If you need to turn to an ally for help, do not bother to remind him of your past assistance and good deeds. He will find a way to ignore you. Instead, uncover something in your request, or in your alliance with him, that will benefit him, and emphasize it out of all proportion. He will respond enthusiastically when he sees something to be gained for himself. சட்டம் 13: உதவி கேட்கும் போது, மக்களின் சுயநலத்திற்காக முறையிடுங்கள், அவர்களின் கருணை அல்லது நன்றியுணர்வுக்கு ஒருபோதும் வேண்டாம் உதவிக்காக நீங்கள் ஒரு கூட்டாளியிடம் திரும்ப வேண்டும் என்றால், உங்கள் கடந்தகால உதவி மற்றும் நல்ல செயல்களை அவருக்கு நினைவுபடுத்த கவலைப்பட வேண்டாம். அவர் உங்களை புறக்கணிக்க ஒரு வழியைக் கண்டுபிடிப்பார். அதற்குப் பதிலாக, உங்கள் கோரிக்கையில் அல்லது அவருடனான உங்கள் கூட்டணியில் அவருக்குப் பயனளிக்கும் ஏதாவது ஒன்றைக் கண்டுபிடித்து, அதை எல்லா விகிதாச்சாரத்திலும் வலியுறுத்துங்கள். தனக்காக எதையாவது அடைய வேண்டும் என்று பார்த்தால் உற்சாகமாக…